01 · Executive Summary
BDT 4 Mn → BDT 110 Mn over five years.
Building on the three-year revenue base of BDT 65 Mn submitted to the bank, the portfolio is projected to scale to a cumulative BDT 250 Mn over five years across VisaAI, EAT AI and DailyYogaFlow — with EBITDA margin expanding from a Year-1 investment phase to 45% by Year 5 as USD-denominated SaaS revenue compounds against a BDT cost base.
BDT 250 Mn
5-Yr Cumulative Revenue
BDT 99.8 Mn
5-Yr Cumulative EBITDA
BDT 198.0 Mn
NPV @ 14% WACC
45%
Year-5 EBITDA Margin
02 · Revenue Projection · By Product
| Product | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | 5-Yr Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VisaAI | 1.5 | 6.0 | 15.0 | 26.0 | 38.0 | 86.5 |
| EAT AI | 2.0 | 7.0 | 18.0 | 30.0 | 45.0 | 102.0 |
| DailyYogaFlow | 0.5 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 19.0 | 27.0 | 61.5 |
| Total Revenue | 4.0 | 16.0 | 45.0 | 75.0 | 110.0 | 250.0 |
| YoY Growth | — | 300% | 181% | 67% | 47% | — |
Y1–Y3 mirror the projection submitted to the bank. Y4–Y5 assume tapered growth (~67% then ~47%) as products mature and shift from acquisition-led to retention-led revenue.
03 · Projected Income Statement (BDT Mn)
| Line Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.00 | 16.00 | 45.00 | 75.00 | 110.00 |
| (–) COGS (22%) | 0.88 | 3.52 | 9.90 | 16.50 | 24.20 |
| Gross Profit | 3.12 | 12.48 | 35.10 | 58.50 | 85.80 |
| (–) Operating Expenses | 3.32 | 9.28 | 19.35 | 27.00 | 36.30 |
| EBITDA | (0.20) | 3.20 | 15.75 | 31.50 | 49.50 |
| EBITDA Margin | -5% | 20% | 35% | 42% | 45% |
| (–) Depreciation & Amortisation | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| EBIT | (1.00) | 2.00 | 14.15 | 29.50 | 47.30 |
| (–) Interest Expense | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.10 | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| Profit Before Tax | (2.40) | 0.60 | 13.05 | 28.80 | 47.00 |
| (–) Tax @ 27.5% | 0.00 | 0.17 | 3.59 | 7.92 | 12.93 |
| Profit After Tax | (2.40) | 0.43 | 9.46 | 20.88 | 34.07 |
COGS comprises GPU/inference, cloud hosting and PSP fees. OpEx covers engineering payroll, paid acquisition, tools and G&A. Interest assumes a BDT 20 Mn facility at ~7% p.a. amortising over 5 years.
04 · Projected Cash Flow & NPV (BDT Mn)
| Line Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBIT × (1 − Tax) | -0.72 | 1.45 | 10.26 | 21.39 | 34.29 |
| (+) Depreciation & Amortisation | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| (–) Capital Expenditure | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| (–) Δ Working Capital | 0.40 | 1.20 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Free Cash Flow (Unlevered) | (3.32) | (1.05) | 6.46 | 18.39 | 31.49 |
| Discount Factor @ 14% | 0.877 | 0.769 | 0.675 | 0.592 | 0.519 |
| Present Value of FCF | (2.91) | (0.81) | 4.36 | 10.89 | 16.35 |
BDT 27.88 Mn
Sum of PV (Y1–Y5)
BDT 170.09 Mn
PV of Terminal Value (g=4%)
BDT 197.97 Mn
Enterprise NPV
Unlevered FCF discounted at a 14% WACC (blended cost reflecting Bangladesh equity risk premium and senior debt cost). Terminal value computed via Gordon Growth (g = 4%) on Year-5 FCF, then discounted back to present.
05 · EBITDA Trajectory
Year 1
(0.20)
BDT Mn EBITDA
-5% margin on BDT 4.0 Mn
Year 2
3.20
BDT Mn EBITDA
20% margin on BDT 16.0 Mn
Year 3
15.75
BDT Mn EBITDA
35% margin on BDT 45.0 Mn
Year 4
31.50
BDT Mn EBITDA
42% margin on BDT 75.0 Mn
Year 5
49.50
BDT Mn EBITDA
45% margin on BDT 110.0 Mn
06 · Key Assumptions
Revenue Currency
Primarily USD (Stripe / Paddle / App Stores); converted at BDT 122/USD.
COGS
22% of revenue — GPU inference, cloud, PSP, app-store fees.
EBITDA Margin Path
Y1 −5% (investment), Y2 20%, Y3 35%, Y4 42%, Y5 45%.
Depreciation & Amortisation
Straight-line over 5 years on capitalised software & equipment.
Interest
BDT 20 Mn facility at ~7% p.a., amortising — declining interest expense.
Tax Rate
27.5% — Bangladesh corporate tax for non-listed companies.
Capex
Front-loaded engineering build-out, tapering as products stabilise.
Working Capital
10% of incremental annual revenue.
Discount Rate (WACC)
14% — blended Bangladesh equity risk premium + senior debt.
Terminal Growth
4% perpetual growth post Year-5 (Gordon model).